2 Uncertainty and Inference Free Online FlashCards

What is an inference?

An inference is a conclusion drawn from evidence.

How can measurement create uncertainty?

Measurement uncertainty arises because instruments, dating methods, and observers have limits or may introduce error.

Why can surviving remains misrepresent past abundance?

Uneven preservation can distort what survives. A few surviving plant remains alone cannot show how common each plant was in the past.

What does confidence describe?

Confidence is an overall judgment of how well a conclusion is supported by the strength and consistency of evidence and its interpretations.

What does probability describe?

Probability describes how likely a clearly specified outcome is.

Does “high confidence” imply a specific percentage?

No. “High confidence” describes the strength of support; it does not automatically mean a particular percentage chance.

What kind of evidence generally strengthens confidence?

Several genuinely independent, consistent lines of high-quality evidence generally support stronger confidence than a single narrow source.

Does not knowing mean two outcomes are equally likely?

No. “We do not know” may reflect a lack of evidence; it does not mean the competing outcomes have equal support.

When are labels such as “low” or “high confidence” useful?

Only when their meanings are defined and applied consistently; qualitative labels do not have universal probability meanings.

What can charred seeds from a limited excavation establish?

Charred seeds show that the plant was present at the site, but limited sampling and uneven preservation do not establish how common it was across the settlement.

What should a responsible explanation of a conclusion make clear?

Separate what is observed from what is inferred, state how secure the inference is, and explain relevant limitations and reasonable alternatives.

Name key ethical responsibilities in handling evidence.

Document methods and decisions, report results accurately, preserve records and collections, acknowledge contributions, and consult affected communities when appropriate.