6 Cognitive Biases and Judgment Free Online FlashCards

What are heuristics, and what risk can they create?

Heuristics are quick rules of thumb that help people judge with limited time, attention, or information, but can sometimes produce systematic biases.

What is confirmation bias?

Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek, notice, or interpret information in ways that support an existing belief while overlooking or discounting challenges to it.

What is the availability heuristic?

The availability heuristic is judging how common or likely something is by how easily examples come to mind. Ease of recall does not establish actual frequency.

What is anchoring?

Anchoring is the tendency for an initial number or estimate to influence later judgments, even when that starting point is arbitrary or only loosely relevant.

What is base-rate neglect?

Base-rate neglect occurs when people give too little weight to background frequencies and judge likelihood mainly by how closely a case resembles a familiar pattern.

What is the framing effect?

The framing effect is the tendency for the wording or presentation of the same choice to change how it feels, even when the underlying outcome is equivalent.

What is overconfidence in judgment?

Overconfidence is being more certain about a judgment than the available evidence warrants. Confidence is not independent proof that a conclusion is correct.

What is hindsight bias?

Hindsight bias is the tendency, after learning an outcome, to see it as having been predictable all along and to overestimate what one knew beforehand.

Does naming a bias prove a conclusion is false?

Identifying a possible bias does not prove a conclusion false. The claim still needs to be assessed by examining its evidence and reasoning.

How can you test a favored explanation?

Ask what observation would count against your favored explanation, then actively look for that disconfirming evidence.

How can you reduce anchoring before seeing a suggested estimate?

Make an independent estimate before seeing a suggested price, forecast, or opinion. This can reduce the influence of an initial anchor.

How can reframing help reveal a framing effect?

Express outcomes in more than one equivalent way, such as both survival and mortality rates, to check whether the wording is shaping your reaction.