8 Reasoned Decision Making Online Quiz Questions

A team argues that it must either launch a new service nationwide immediately or abandon the project. A small pilot could also be considered. Which reasoning error does the team's argument illustrate?

If a decision produces a bad outcome, that outcome alone proves the decision was poorly reasoned.

A planning team cannot estimate reliable probabilities, and it is not even sure all the possible outcomes have been identified. Which approach best fits this situation?

A department is deciding whether to adopt a new scheduling system. Which options should it consider as genuine alternatives to immediate full adoption? Select all that apply.

A manager interviews two customers who liked a product and concludes that all customers will like it. Name the fallacy illustrated by drawing a broad conclusion from too few or unrepresentative cases.

Identifying a fallacy in an argument is, by itself, enough to prove that the argument's conclusion is false.

A decision-maker considers an expensive study that is unlikely to change which option they choose and would delay an urgent response. What is the most reasonable course regarding that study?

A committee wants to reduce the chance that its members will favor evidence supporting their existing preferences. Which practices are useful safeguards? Select all that apply.

An option has a $60\%$ chance of gaining $8$ points and a $40\%$ chance of losing $2$ points. Using expected value, calculate $(0.6 \times 8) + (0.4 \times -2)$. Enter the result in points.

A team slightly adjusts its estimate of a project’s costs and finds that its preferred option changes. Which concept best describes testing how changes in important estimates affect the ranking of options?

A city must decide by next month whether to replace its aging public alert system. The replacement is costly, but delaying too long could create safety problems. Describe a reasoned decision process the city should use. Include how it should frame the decision, generate and assess options, compare them under uncertainty, make a choice, and review it.

True or false: A decision should be judged solely by whether its outcome turned out well.

A team must decide whether to renew its software contract or switch providers. Which question frames that decision most usefully?

An adviser says, “This course will improve your job prospects because graduates often find work quickly.” Which unstated assumption is most important to check?

A professionally designed report makes a strong claim about a new policy but gives little detail about how its data were collected. What is the best next step?

A planner can reasonably estimate the probabilities of several possible outcomes for two options. Which kind of uncertainty best describes this situation?

A shop changed its sign, and sales increased the following week. The owner concludes that the new sign caused the increase, without checking other explanations. What reasoning error is this?

An option has an $80\%$ chance of a benefit worth $10$ points and a $20\%$ chance of a loss worth $-5$ points. What is its expected value? Enter the result in points.