8 Reasoned Decision Making Free Online FlashCards

What is reasoned decision making?

It is the deliberate process of clarifying what matters, examining claims and evidence, recognizing uncertainty, and comparing likely consequences.

Why shouldn't a decision be judged by its outcome alone?

Judge a decision by the reasoning and information available when it was made, not by its outcome alone; chance and outside events also affect results.

What should you clarify when framing a decision?

State exactly what must be decided, by when, and for what purpose; identify constraints and the people affected.

What role do assumptions play in an argument?

Assumptions are conditions that must be true for the evidence to support a claim. Check whether they are justified or left unstated.

What is a hasty generalization?

A hasty generalization draws a broad conclusion from too few or unrepresentative cases.

Does a source's perspective automatically make its evidence useless?

A source with a perspective can still provide useful evidence. Evaluate its methods and claims rather than dismissing it automatically.

How can you check whether sources independently support a claim?

Trace important claims to their original evidence when possible, and seek independent sources rather than outlets repeating the same report.

What less-obvious alternatives should you consider?

Alternatives can include doing nothing, waiting, gathering more information, or trying a reversible small-scale version.

How does deeper uncertainty differ from risk?

Risk involves probabilities that are known or reasonably estimated. Deeper uncertainty arises when probabilities or even possible outcomes are unclear.

What is the expected value in the 80%-benefit, 20%-loss example?

The expected value is \,$(0.8 \times 10) + (0.2 \times -5) = 7$ points. It is a comparison aid, not a complete decision rule.

What does sensitivity analysis test?

Sensitivity analysis checks whether the preferred option changes when important assumptions or estimates change.

What is confirmation bias?

Confirmation bias is the tendency to favor information that supports an existing belief.