If a set of outcomes is exhaustive, their probabilities sum to .
5 Quantitative Risk Analysis Online Quiz Questions
Use this free practice quiz with 20 questions to review 5 Quantitative Risk Analysis, test your knowledge, and prepare for your next test or exam.
Quantitative risk analysis is commonly applied to significant or high-priority risks because it can require more data and effort than qualitative assessment.
- A
True
- B
False
In expected monetary value analysis, what term identifies a risk whose impact is recorded as a gain?
A project analyst wants to test how an estimate responds to changes in individual inputs. Which approach matches sensitivity analysis?
- A
Change several inputs together so the analysis reflects the whole project.
- B
Vary one factor at a time while holding other assumptions constant.
- C
Keep all inputs fixed and compare only actual results with estimates.
- D
Adjust inputs arbitrarily until the preferred option is clear.
In a decision tree, what does a chance node represent?
- A
A choice the project team makes between alternatives.
- B
Possible outcomes and their probabilities.
- C
The final payoff or cost at the end of a branch.
- D
A record of assumptions and analysis dates.
Complete the statement: Expected monetary value is the probability-weighted of possible outcomes.
Once a project team calculates quantitative risk estimates, uncertainty has been removed from the project.
- A
True
- B
False
Select all statements that describe limitations of expected monetary value as a basis for project decisions.
- A
It is an average across possible outcomes, not a prediction of what will happen in a particular case.
- B
It does not describe the full range of possible outcomes.
- C
It fully captures how much risk an organization is willing to accept.
- D
It guarantees that the project will realize the calculated value.
A standard supplier costs $100,000 and has a 30% chance of a $50,000 delay cost. A more reliable supplier costs $112,000 and has a 5% chance of the same delay cost. Based on expected total cost, which alternative should the team prefer?
- A
Choose the standard supplier; its expected total cost is $114,500.
- B
Choose the more reliable supplier; its expected total cost is $114,500, compared with $115,000 for the standard supplier.
- C
Choose the standard supplier; its expected total cost is $112,000.
- D
The expected total costs are equal.
A supplier delay has a 30% probability of causing a $50,000 loss. Using a negative value for the loss, what is the expected monetary value in dollars?
A team is considering adding the EMVs of several risks. Select all considerations that are supported by sound quantitative risk analysis.
- A
Use estimates with a consistent scope and time frame.
- B
Account for dependencies between risks because they can make a simple sum misleading.
- C
Add the values regardless of whether the estimates cover the same time frame.
- D
Assume that the risks are independent whenever each has a probability estimate.
A project's conditions have changed since its risks were assessed. What should the team do with its analysis?
- A
Keep the original assessment unchanged so comparisons remain consistent.
- B
Update the assessment when conditions change and reassess planned responses.
- C
Stop comparing estimates with actual results once the project is underway.
- D
Replace changed estimates with arbitrary adjustments.
A project team must choose between alternatives with uncertain outcomes. Explain how it can use a decision tree to evaluate the alternatives and make a choice.
True or false: Once probabilities and impacts have been estimated, quantitative risk analysis removes uncertainty from a project.
- A
True
- B
False
In a decision tree, what does a decision node represent, and what does a chance node represent?
- A
A decision node marks uncertain outcomes; a chance node marks a choice.
- B
A decision node marks a choice; a chance node marks possible outcomes and their probabilities.
- C
A decision node shows the final payoff; a chance node shows the analysis date.
- D
A decision node records assumptions; a chance node ranks input factors.
A team has limited time for analysis. Why might it reserve quantitative risk analysis for significant or high-priority risks?
- A
It requires less data than qualitative assessment, so it is used for every minor risk.
- B
It is used only when a project has already experienced a loss.
- C
It can require more data and effort, so it is commonly applied to significant or high-priority risks.
- D
It replaces the need to use judgment when deciding which risks matter.
A team wants to find out how changes in one estimate affect a project decision. Which approach matches sensitivity analysis?
- A
Vary one input while holding other assumptions constant, then compare the results.
- B
Change several inputs at once so their combined effect can be isolated.
- C
Keep all inputs fixed and compare the project’s actual result with its original estimate.
- D
Adjust inputs until the preferred alternative has the lowest cost.
What chart can rank factors by how much they change a project estimate or decision? Enter the chart name.
A project team plans to combine EMVs for several risks. Which consideration makes that approach most appropriate?
- A
Always add the EMVs, because each risk is estimated independently.
- B
Add them when scope and time frame are consistent, and consider whether dependencies make a simple sum misleading.
- C
Add them only when every risk has the same probability.
- D
Do not add EMVs under any circumstances, even when estimates are comparable.
An opportunity has a 40% chance of producing a $25,000 gain and a 60% chance of producing no gain. What is its expected monetary value in dollars?
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