01
Front
How does a judgment differ from a decision?
Back
A judgment estimates what may happen; a decision selects an action using beliefs about possible outcomes and their value.
Free Online Flashcard Deck
1 Judgment and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty Free Online FlashCards
Study 1 Judgment and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty with 12 free online flashcards. Review key terms, definitions, and concepts with this interactive flashcard deck.
12 cards
02
Front
What distinguishes risk from uncertainty?
Back
In risk, probabilities are known or reasonably estimable. In uncertainty, probabilities may be unknown or poorly specified.
03
Front
What is a heuristic?
Back
A heuristic is a simplifying strategy for judging or deciding with limited time, information, or effort. It can be useful and is not inherently an error.
04
Front
What is a bias in judgment?
Back
A bias is a systematic tendency that can skew judgment, sometimes when a heuristic is applied where it gives a misleading answer.
05
Front
How does the representativeness heuristic estimate likelihood?
Back
Representativeness estimates likelihood by resemblance to a category or stereotype; this can lead people to neglect base rates.
06
Front
What is a base rate, and why does it matter?
Back
A base rate is how common a category is. It matters because resemblance alone does not establish which category is more probable.
07
Front
How does the availability heuristic shape estimates?
Back
Availability estimates frequency or likelihood by how easily examples come to mind; vivid or recent events may therefore seem more common.
08
Front
How can anchoring and adjustment distort an estimate?
Back
Anchoring and adjustment begins with an initial estimate. If adjustment is insufficient, that anchor can pull the final estimate toward it, even if arbitrary.
09
Front
What does a normative model of choice provide?
Back
A normative model specifies how a choice should be made under stated assumptions.
10
Front
How is an action’s expected utility calculated?
Back
Expected utility weights each outcome’s utility by its probability and sums the results: EU(a)=∑ipiU(oi).
11
Front
What are key limits of expected utility as a decision benchmark?
Back
Expected utility cannot supply missing probabilities or determine a person's values. Its recommendation may also be inadequate if important outcomes are omitted.
12
Front
What patterns does prospect theory help explain?
Back
Prospect theory is a descriptive alternative for choices under risk. It accounts for sensitivity to gains and losses and the disproportionate influence of some probabilities.
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