01
Front
What is confirmation bias?
Back
Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek, interpret, or recall evidence in ways that favor an existing belief or hypothesis.
Free Online Flashcard Deck
3 Biases in Belief and Judgment Free Online FlashCards
Study 3 Biases in Belief and Judgment with 12 free online flashcards. Review key terms, definitions, and concepts with this interactive flashcard deck.
12 cards
02
Front
What question can help challenge a favored belief?
Back
Ask, “What evidence would make me change my mind?” Then actively look for it and compare competing explanations.
03
Front
What are three forms of overconfidence?
Back
It can involve overestimating one’s performance, believing one performs better than others, or expressing more precision or certainty than evidence supports.
04
Front
Why can overconfidence harm decisions?
Back
Unwarranted certainty can make people less likely to seek information, consider risks, or prepare alternatives.
05
Front
What does calibration mean for probabilistic predictions?
Back
Calibration means that predictions made with a given probability match the observed frequency of those outcomes across many cases.
06
Front
How can people make confidence measurable?
Back
Record predictions as probabilities, then compare them with outcomes over time to see whether confidence needs recalibration.
07
Front
What is hindsight bias?
Back
Hindsight bias is the tendency, after learning an outcome, to see it as more predictable or inevitable than it seemed beforehand.
08
Front
How can hindsight bias distort evaluation of a failed project?
Back
A warning sign may seem obvious after a project fails, even if it was ambiguous at the time, leading observers to judge the original decision unfairly.
09
Front
What record can help reduce hindsight bias?
Back
Keep a dated record of forecasts, assumptions, and uncertainties before the outcome is known.
10
Front
How should a decision be reviewed to counter hindsight bias?
Back
Reconstruct the information actually available at the time and consider plausible outcomes that did not occur.
11
Front
How can confirmation bias, overconfidence, and hindsight bias reinforce one another?
Back
A favored explanation can attract supporting evidence, seem more certain than warranted, and later appear predictable in retrospect.
12
Front
What should a disciplined review consider beyond a favored explanation?
Back
Consider alternative explanations and relevant base rates rather than relying only on a favored account.
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