Timedora
Free Practice Quiz Question List

7 Debiasing and Better Decisions Online Quiz Questions

Use this free practice quiz with 20 questions to review 7 Debiasing and Better Decisions, test your knowledge, and prepare for your next test or exam.

20 questions
01
Choose one
1 point

A team expects a project to finish much sooner than comparable projects because its plan seems especially well organized. Which action best applies the outside view?

  1. A

    Build a detailed story of why this particular plan is likely to succeed.

  2. B

    Find outcomes from genuinely similar past cases and adjust their baseline for important differences.

  3. C

    Ask the person who proposed the plan to estimate its success using their experience.

  4. D

    List the best-case and worst-case outcomes, then choose the more appealing one.

02
Choose one
1 point

A manager must decide when to rely more on an experienced colleague’s intuition. Which condition most supports relying on that intuition?

  1. A

    The setting has learnable regularities, and the person receives useful feedback.

  2. B

    The person has high confidence and many years of experience.

  3. C

    The decision feels unique, even though evidence is sparse.

  4. D

    The person makes a quick judgment rather than following a procedure.

03
Choose one
1 point

Across many comparable forecasts, what would it mean for a forecaster’s forecasts assigned 70% probability to be calibrated?

  1. A

    Every forecast assigned 70% must come true.

  2. B

    The forecaster must correctly rank every event from most to least likely.

  3. C

    Across many comparable forecasts assigned 70%, about 70% should come true.

  4. D

    The forecaster must assign a probability of either 0% or 100%.

04
Choose all
1 point

Which actions can help someone evaluate and improve their forecast calibration over time? Select all that apply.

  1. A

    Record the probability estimate, reasons, assumptions, and what outcome will resolve the forecast.

  2. B

    Treat each forecast as a success if its outcome was possible.

  3. C

    Group resolved forecasts into broad confidence ranges and compare estimates with outcomes.

  4. D

    Conclude that calibration improved whenever one forecast comes true.

05
Choose all
1 point

A committee wants to reduce predictable errors in repeated group decisions. Which practices are recommended? Select all that apply.

  1. A

    Record estimates before discussion.

  2. B

    Ask participants to state what evidence would change their minds.

  3. C

    Let the first person to speak summarize the group’s likely position.

  4. D

    Use a consistent checklist for repeated decisions.

06
True or false
1 point

A forecast assigned 70% confidence can be wrong without, by itself, proving that the forecaster is poorly calibrated.

  1. A

    True

  2. B

    False

07
True or false
1 point

If a premortem produces several plausible explanations for how a decision could fail, that proves failure is likely.

  1. A

    True

  2. B

    False

08
Written response
1 point

A manager already favors one explanation and pays more attention to evidence that supports it than to evidence that could challenge it. What bias does this illustrate?

09
Written response
1 point

A forecaster assigns a 70% probability to a yes-or-no event, but the event does not occur. Using the Brier score formula (forecast probability−outcome)2(\text{forecast probability}-\text{outcome})^2, where the outcome is 0 if the event does not occur, what is the score? Enter the value as a decimal.

10
Fill in the blank
1 point

To estimate a baseline for how long a project may take, first identify a of genuinely similar past cases.

11
Fill in the blank
1 point

Before committing to a consequential choice, decide when you will check progress and what new evidence could change your decision; this establishes a .

12
Open ended
1 point

A team is considering a low-cost software change that can be reversed easily. Describe how the team could use a small trial and a review point to make the decision, including what evidence should guide its next step.

13
Choose one
1 point

A hospital adopts a checklist to reduce errors in a recurring decision. Which expectation about the checklist is most reasonable?

  1. A

    Any structured decision procedure guarantees a correct result.

  2. B

    A debiasing procedure may reduce predictable errors, but its effectiveness depends on the method and setting.

  3. C

    Intuition should be eliminated whenever a decision matters.

  4. D

    A debiasing technique works only when a decision is reversible.

14
True or false
1 point

In a group forecasting meeting, collecting independent estimates before discussion can reduce the risk that early opinions anchor the group.

  1. A

    True

  2. B

    False

15
Written response
1 point

What tool can you use to record a forecast’s question, probability estimate, reasons, assumptions, and resolving outcome so you can review it later? Enter the name of the tool in two words.

16
Choose one
1 point

A project lead strongly favors one explanation for a problem. Which action would best help counter confirmation bias before deciding?

  1. A

    Estimate how much the favored plan will cost based on similar past cases.

  2. B

    Wait to collect information until the favored explanation is certain.

  3. C

    Name a credible alternative explanation and identify evidence that would distinguish it.

  4. D

    List only the evidence that supports the explanation already preferred.

17
Choose one
1 point

A team is about to make a consequential choice. Which activity best describes a premortem?

  1. A

    Treat the imagined failure as evidence that the decision is likely to fail.

  2. B

    Imagine the decision failed, list plausible reasons, and consider how to address them.

  3. C

    Choose the most optimistic outcome and ignore other possibilities.

  4. D

    Use the exercise to decide whether the decision can be reversed, without considering possible causes of failure.

18
Written response
1 point

In a group, one person states an estimate first, and the others’ estimates cluster around it even though they have not yet shared their own reasoning. What cognitive bias may this illustrate? Enter the name of the bias.

19
Choose one
1 point

A planner expects a project to finish quickly because the current plan seems straightforward. Which approach best applies the outside view?

  1. A

    Find outcomes from genuinely similar past cases, then adjust the baseline for important differences.

  2. B

    Build a vivid account of how this particular plan is expected to unfold.

  3. C

    Use only the most successful past case as a forecast for the current plan.

  4. D

    Ignore past cases because the current situation feels unique.

20
Choose one
1 point

A team wants to reduce the influence of early opinions on a repeated group decision. Which process change best fits this goal?

  1. A

    Let the most senior participant offer an estimate first so the group can converge quickly.

  2. B

    Discuss the preferred option before anyone records an estimate.

  3. C

    Record participants’ estimates independently before discussion begins.

  4. D

    Ask participants to state their conclusions but not what evidence could change them.