01
Front
What does conditional probability mean?
Back
It is the chance of event given that event has occurred. The direction matters: is generally not equal to .
Free Online Flashcard Deck
4 Probability and Statistical Reasoning Free Online FlashCards
Study 4 Probability and Statistical Reasoning with 12 free online flashcards. Review key terms, definitions, and concepts with this interactive flashcard deck.
12 cards
02
Front
How does Bayes’ rule update a prior probability?
Back
Bayes’ rule updates the prior probability of A using evidence B: P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A).
03
Front
What is a base rate?
Back
A base rate is how frequent an outcome is in the relevant population before considering a particular piece of evidence.
04
Front
Why convert probabilities into natural frequencies?
Back
Convert percentages into counts out of a group, such as 1,000 or 10,000 people. This makes competing possibilities easier to compare.
05
Front
How do population, sample, parameter, and statistic differ?
Back
A population is the full group of interest; a sample is the part observed. A parameter describes a population, while a statistic summarizes a sample.
06
Front
What defines a simple random sample?
Back
Selection follows a known random procedure. In a simple random sample, every population member has the same chance of selection.
07
Front
What is sampling variability?
Back
Sampling variability is the chance difference between a sample statistic and the population parameter. Larger, well-designed probability samples generally reduce it.
08
Front
What is sampling bias?
Back
Sampling bias occurs when selection or response systematically overrepresents or underrepresents groups in the population.
09
Front
What is regression to the mean?
Back
It is the tendency for an unusually high or low observation to be followed, on average, by a less extreme one when repeated measurements are imperfectly correlated.
10
Front
Why can improvement after an extreme result fail to prove an intervention worked?
Back
An extreme result may partly reflect temporary variation. A later result can be less extreme without a personal change or an effective treatment; a suitable comparison group helps assess intervention effects.
11
Front
What is the availability heuristic?
Back
Availability is judging an event as common because examples come readily to mind; a recent dramatic story can distort judgments of population-level frequency.
12
Front
What is the representativeness heuristic?
Back
Representativeness is judging likelihood by resemblance to a familiar pattern while neglecting the base rate. Fitting a stereotype does not outweigh how common each group is.
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