Study 2 Heuristics in Estimation and Prediction with 12 free online flashcards. Review key terms, definitions, and concepts with this interactive flashcard deck.
What are heuristics in estimation and prediction?
Heuristics are quick mental shortcuts that make judgments efficient, especially with incomplete information, but can cause predictable errors when a cue is mistaken for the quantity being judged.
What is the availability heuristic?
It is the tendency to judge how frequent or likely something is by how easily examples or scenarios come to mind.
What is the representativeness heuristic?
It is the tendency to judge the probability that someone or something belongs to a category by how closely it resembles a typical example.
Do earlier heads make tails more likely on the next independent flip of a fair coin?
If a fair coin’s flips are independent, earlier results do not change the probability of the next flip; a run of heads does not make tails due.
What is the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic?
It occurs when an initial value, or anchor, influences a numerical estimate as people adjust from it.
What can make an event seem easy to recall without making it common?
Vividness, recency, personal experience, and media attention can make examples easier to recall, even when recall does not reflect actual frequency.
Why might news of several house fires inflate someone’s estimate of fire risk?
After hearing several reports about house fires, someone may overestimate their likelihood because dramatic reports are easy to recall.
How can a forecaster check an availability-based estimate?
Consult relevant records or a representative set of cases instead of relying only on memorable examples.
What is a base rate?
A base rate is how common a category is in the first place.
Why is a book-loving person’s resemblance to a librarian not enough to identify their occupation?
A quiet, orderly, book-loving person may resemble a librarian, but that description alone does not establish their occupation. Consider how common librarians are and how diagnostic the description is.
How can a suggested repair price influence an estimate?
A suggested price can serve as an anchor: even if unreliable, it may influence the estimate because people do not adjust far enough from it.
How can you reduce unwanted anchoring?
Make an independent estimate before seeing others’ numbers, compare several relevant reference values, and make adjustments explicit.
Learn how goals, available actions, and constraints shape problem representations, and how reconsidering assumptions can open new paths toward a solution.
Explore how development unfolds from conception through age three, including prenatal periods, newborn adaptation, physical and cognitive growth, language, attachment, and social-emotional change.
Learn how cognitive, motivational, and environmental barriers can disrupt problem solving and how to recognize and address them.
Explore the physical, cognitive, emotional, and social changes of middle childhood, and how family, school, peers, and developmental theories help explain them.
A focused review of language, problem solving, decision making, intelligence, creativity, and cognitive biases in psychology.
A 14-question quiz on cognition and intelligence covering language, problem solving, decision making, intelligence, creativity, and cognitive bias. The questions progress from foundational application to more integrative reasoning.
Explore how physical, cognitive, emotional, social, and work-related experiences can vary during middle adulthood, and how adults adapt to change and responsibility.
Explore how physical, cognitive, and social development changes and continues from before birth through late adulthood, and why individual pathways differ.
A focused review of developmental psychology covering lifespan change, prenatal development, major developmental stages, and influential theories of cognitive, psychosocial, moral, and ecological development.
A structured guide to language, problem solving, decision making, intelligence, creativity, and cognitive bias, with practical connections among these core cognitive processes.
A lifespan overview of how physical, cognitive, and psychosocial development unfolds from conception through late adulthood, integrating major developmental theories and the roles of biology, experience, relationships, and culture.
A structured guide to how motivation, emotion, stress, coping, and health behavior interact through biological, cognitive, social, and environmental processes.