Use this free practice quiz with 20 questions to review 2 Heuristics in Estimation and Prediction, test your knowledge, and prepare for your next test or exam.
A forecaster remembers several recent product launches that succeeded and, because those stories come readily to mind, estimates that the next similar launch is very likely to succeed. Which heuristic is most directly influencing the estimate?
Anchoring
Availability
Representativeness
Base-rate neglect
After a fair coin lands heads several times, a person expects tails on the next flip because tails now feels due. The previous flips make tails more likely on the next flip.
True
False
In numerical estimation, the initial value used as a starting point for adjustment is called an .
What term means how common a category is in the first place, before considering case-specific evidence? Enter the two-word term.
A quiet, orderly person who enjoys books seems like a librarian. Which approach would make this occupational judgment more reliable?
Choose librarian because the description closely matches a familiar librarian stereotype.
Ignore the description and assume every occupation is equally likely.
Consider how common librarians are compared with other occupations and how strongly the description distinguishes among them.
Decide based on whichever occupation is easiest to picture.
Select all factors that can make examples easier to recall even when ease of recall does not accurately reflect how frequent an event is.
The vividness of an example
How recently an example occurred
The person's own experience
How much media attention an event receives
The event's actual frequency, and nothing else
When comparing possibilities, how strongly a description distinguishes among them concerns its .
Availability, representativeness, and anchoring are guaranteed to produce errors whenever people use them.
True
False
What two-word practice can reduce the influence of another person's number if you do it before seeing that number? Enter the practice in singular form.
A repair shop suggests a price before you estimate the repair cost. Which action would best reduce the chance that this suggestion pulls your estimate toward it?
Start with the suggested price and adjust only slightly.
Make an independent estimate before hearing the suggested price.
Use the first price mentioned as the most reliable estimate.
Avoid comparing the estimate with any other information.
A person sees a short sequence of random outcomes and predicts what will happen next because the sequence resembles a familiar pattern. Which heuristic is most directly involved?
Representativeness
Availability
Anchoring
Independent benchmarking
A forecaster recalls two recent product-launch successes and predicts that a similar launch will succeed. Someone else estimates a repair cost after hearing a suggested price. A third person expects tails after several heads on a fair coin because tails feels due. For each case, name the heuristic involved and explain one relevant check or safeguard.
Which statement best describes when an anchor might provide useful context for an estimate?
Any first number is useful because it gives an estimate a starting point.
A benchmark is reliable as long as it is easy to remember.
A relevant, reliable benchmark may help, but its relevance should be checked.
Anchors are always harmful and should never be considered.
Select all practices that can make judgments more reliable when recall, resemblance, or an initial number may be influencing an estimate.
Check relevant records or a representative set of cases rather than relying only on memorable examples.
Ask what the relevant base rate is and how strongly the evidence distinguishes among the possibilities.
Form an independent estimate before seeing others' numbers.
Compare several relevant reference values and make adjustments explicit.
Accept the first intuitive judgment whenever one cue is easy to use.
After hearing several dramatic reports about house fires, someone judges that a house fire is more likely than it really is. Which heuristic best explains this judgment?
Representativeness, because the reports resemble a typical house fire
Availability, because memorable reports are easy to recall
Anchoring, because the reports provide an initial numerical estimate
Base-rate reasoning, because the reports establish the actual frequency
When estimating whether a person belongs to a category, what term describes how common that category is in the first place?
Someone is described as quiet, orderly, and fond of books. To estimate whether this person is a librarian, which approach best avoids being misled by resemblance?
Choose librarian because the description closely resembles a familiar librarian
Ignore the description and assume every occupation is equally likely
Consider how common librarians are and how diagnostic the description is
Choose the least common occupation because distinctive traits imply rarity
A fair coin has landed heads several times in a row. If the flips are independent, this history makes tails more likely on the next flip.
True
False
A person estimates a repair cost after first hearing a suggested price. The suggestion is unreliable, but the estimate stays close to it. Which explanation best fits this pattern?
The suggested price may anchor the estimate, and the person may not adjust far enough from it
The suggested price makes the actual repair cost more frequent
The suggested price establishes the repair's base rate
The suggested price makes similar repair examples easier to recall
In anchoring-and-adjustment, what is the initial value from which a person begins adjusting a numerical estimate?
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